Technology Simulation 2016-11-24T23:06:46+00:00

Technology Simulation Modeling

We use the CIMS model to simulate how policy, energy prices, human behavior and technological change will affect how people use energy while also simulating the impact of that change on air emissions and financial costs. This tool allows us to:

  • Produce a forecasts of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for all sectors in a given region
  • Evaluate the impact of policies on technology adoption, energy use and emissions
  • Test the sensitivity of the forecast to a range of varying assumptions

Representing technological detail

The model has a detailed representation of existing and emerging technologies across all energy-intensive sectors of the economy (everything from furnaces to alternative fuel vehicles to wind turbines). The model then simulates how these technologies are acquired, used to provide energy services (e.g. home heating or transportation), retrofitted and ultimately retired.

Technology Modeling

Characterizing firm and consumer decision making

In addition to being technologically detailed, CIMS also characterize how firms and consumers make decisions in the real world. These decisions are based not only on financial costs, but also reflect important aspects of human behavior. Specifically, CIMS accounts for how preferences for familiar technologies, perceived risks of new technologies and the heterogeneity of human choices impact energy consumption and air emissions.

Balancing energy supply and demand

 CIMS balances supply and demand for energy commodities. This ensures that we capture the full impact of policies across all sectors of the economy. For example, a policy requiring the adoption of renewable electricity generation is likely to increase the price for electricity, which will in turn influence firm and consumer choices related to technologies that consume electricity.

Related Projects

Client: BC Climate Action Secretariat
Completion Date: 2016
In 2015, British Columbia began work on a new Climate Leadership Plan to help the province achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets. We were contracted to provide an independent assessment of BC’s existing policies (including the provincial carbon tax), as well as assess how new policies would affect greenhouse gas emissions and the development of the provincial economy. As part of this project, we worked closely with the Climate Leadership Team, a group of experts tasked with providing advice and recommendations on how to update BC’s Climate Action Plan. To conduct this analysis, we employed our CIMS, GEEM and IESD models.

Client: Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change
Completion Date: 2016
In 2015, Ontario announced its intention to join the cap and trade system under the Western Climate Initiative to help meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets. Partnering with EnviroEconomics, we helped the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change understand how the provincial economy could evolve in order to meet greenhouse gas targets under its Climate Change Action Plan. In particular, we explored how alternate design options for cap and trade may impact provincial economic and emissions outcomes.

Client: Clean Energy Canada
Completion Date: 2015
Clean Energy Canada retained us to model the job and economic implications of meeting BC’s 2020 and 2050 climate targets. Our analysis demonstrates that the provincial economy can keep growing while emissions fall by 80% from 2007 levels, if there is early and ongoing commitment to strong carbon abatement policies. To conduct the analysis, we used the CIMS technology simulation model and the GEEM computable general equilibrium model.

Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.