Research
Bitumen Beyond Combustion in a Net Zero Alberta
November, 2023
Summary
In March 2023, Navius Research completed a study titled “Impacts and Opportunities in Alberta’s Net Zero Energy System”. This study evaluated future possible energy systems that achieve net zero emissions by 2050 in Alberta and provided insight into key uncertainties and opportunities for Alberta’s energy system in a net zero future.
One of the capabilities added to gTech for this study was the ability to simulate bitumen beyond combustion. This involved adding the ability to simulate different grades of crude oil being used to produce different refined products, by adding greater disaggregation of crude oil by grade, greater disaggregation of refined petroleum products, and adding a new refinery module to the model. Adding this functionality to gTech had a significant impact on the role of Alberta’s oil sands sector in a net zero future.
Alberta Innovates commissioned Navius to prepare a memo that summarizes the key assumptions and findings of this modeling addition. Highlights are provided below.
Highlights:
- When net zero policy is simulated, demand for gasoline and diesel declines significantly by 2050, while demand for asphalt lubricants and petrochemicals remains.
- Since heavier crudes (like bitumen) have a comparative advantage in producing products in the range for which demand remains in a net zero future, refinery input changes from mostly light oil in 2020 to more heavy oil and bitumen by 2050 under net zero policy.
- This has a significant impact on the role of oil sands in a net zero future, and results suggest that oil sands may be the “last barrel standing” in 2050 under net zero policy.
Click above to download the memo.
Click above to view Alberta Innovates’ website, featuring the memo.
This analysis was commissioned and funded by Alberta Innovates.
To learn more about this research, please contact Brianne Riehl.
Other Research
2023
Bitumen Beyond Combustion in a Net Zero Alberta
Potential of hydrogen to help decarbonize the Yukon
Modeling emissions reductions pathways in the Northwest Territories
Analyzing Net Zero Pathways for Canada
The value of interprovincial transmission for a net-zero future
Modeling Energy Transition Scenarios for Canada
What does achieving net zero mean for clean energy jobs in Canada?
What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix?
2022
Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Animal-sourced food consumption and Canada’s emissions targets
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Potential of small modular reactors in hard-to-decarbonize industries
Hitting Canada’s climate targets with biogas & RNG
Under Water: The costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure
2021
Informing a strategy for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia
The role of carbon capture and storage in Canada’s net zero future
Canada’s clean energy economy to 2030
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations explanation and insights
Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target
Assessing the impacts of the Conservative Plan to Combat Climate Change
2020
2019
Meeting Canada’s climate mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement
Quantifying Canada’s clean energy economy
California and Québec’s ZEV mandates description
Reversing carbon leakage in the Canadian aluminum sector
Supporting the development of CleanBC
Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors
Older
Review of British Columbia’s RLCFRR energy effectiveness ratios
Refining margins and fuel policy in British Columbia
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Electrification best practices in Canada
A review of ECCC’s method for estimating upstream GHGs
Refining margins in British Columbia
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the Energy East pipeline project
The Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation
How do industrial GHG reduction efforts affect demand for skilled labour?
Is British Columbia’s carbon tax good for household income?
How resilient are the Canadian oil sands to carbon constraints?