Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan

April, 2022


The Canadian Climate Institute has conducted an independent assessment of the emissions projections contained in Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan. We have also reviewed the main elements of the 2030 Plan against our Emissions Reduction Plan assessment framework published in March 2022. We conclude that the 2030 Plan is credible and sets Canada on a path to reaching its 2026 emission-reduction targets on the way to 2030 and 2050. The Plan includes more transparency on the modelling and analysis used to develop the projections than we’ve seen before, develops sector-by-sector emissions projections that could form the basis of sectoral road maps to aid with implementation, and provides insight on how the plan is to be executed.


  • The Plan provides a credible pathway to the 2030 milestone—and the policies required to achieve it.
  • This is the most transparent climate plan the federal government has ever produced.
  • The Plan’s extensive sector-level detail provides a foundation for developing sector-level policy strategies.
  • The sheer number of policies included in the 2030 Plan is doubleedged.
  • Implementation remains the biggest challenge moving forward.

Click above to download our technical report.

Click above to visit the Canadian Climate Institute’s webpage & download the final report.

Download the report or visit the Canadian Climate Institute’s report webpage.

This study was commissioned and funded by the Canadian Climate Institute.

To learn more about this research, please contact Franziska Förg.

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