Research
Summary
In November 2020, Canada’s federal government introduced Bill C-12 with the objective of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. At the request of the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, Navius Research undertook an assessment of pathways under which Canada could achieve this mid-century target. This study explores potential net zero pathways for Canada, illustrates trade-offs and quantifies uncertainty across pathways, and provides insight into the potential policy priorities needed for Canada to achieve its goal of net zero emissions by 2050.
Highlights:
- A total of 62 policy agnostic net zero pathways were simulated in this analysis, all of which achieve Canada’s 2030 emissions target and net zero emissions by 2050.
- Five key drivers of emissions reductions, which vary in their role across net zero pathways, include fuel switching (such as electrification and biofuels), energy efficiency, reducing industrial process emissions (such as fugitive methane), carbon capture and storage, and direct air capture.
- Actions that are common across all net zero pathways include a significant increase in electricity generation capacity and biofuel manufacturing, a switch in investment towards clean energy technologies and capacity for carbon sequestration, and a switch to fully decarbonized steelmaking.
- Results indicate a trade-off between the use of negative emission technologies, such as direct air capture and carbon capture and storage, if these technologies become commercially available, and the transformation of Canada’s energy system and economy to rely on cleaner fuels through fuel switching.
Click above to download the report. Pour la version française, veuillez cliquer ici.
Download the report or visit the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices’ report webpage. Cette analyse est aussi disponible en français.
This study was commissioned and funded by the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices.
To learn more about this research, please contact Brianne Riehl.
Other Research
2023
Bitumen Beyond Combustion in a Net Zero Alberta
Potential of hydrogen to help decarbonize the Yukon
Modeling emissions reductions pathways in the Northwest Territories
Analyzing Net Zero Pathways for Canada
The value of interprovincial transmission for a net-zero future
Modeling Energy Transition Scenarios for Canada
What does achieving net zero mean for clean energy jobs in Canada?
What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix?
2022
Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Animal-sourced food consumption and Canada’s emissions targets
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Potential of small modular reactors in hard-to-decarbonize industries
Hitting Canada’s climate targets with biogas & RNG
Under Water: The costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure
2021
Informing a strategy for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia
The role of carbon capture and storage in Canada’s net zero future
Canada’s clean energy economy to 2030
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations explanation and insights
Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target
Assessing the impacts of the Conservative Plan to Combat Climate Change
2020
2019
Meeting Canada’s climate mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement
Quantifying Canada’s clean energy economy
California and Québec’s ZEV mandates description
Reversing carbon leakage in the Canadian aluminum sector
Supporting the development of CleanBC
Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors
Older
Review of British Columbia’s RLCFRR energy effectiveness ratios
Refining margins and fuel policy in British Columbia
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Electrification best practices in Canada
A review of ECCC’s method for estimating upstream GHGs
Refining margins in British Columbia
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the Energy East pipeline project
The Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation
How do industrial GHG reduction efforts affect demand for skilled labour?
Is British Columbia’s carbon tax good for household income?
How resilient are the Canadian oil sands to carbon constraints?