Research
Assessing Net-Zero Electricity Supply and Demand Models in the Atlantic Loop
Noel Melton
Carlie Owen
Abed Ayyad
May, 2022
Summary
The Ecology Action Centre asked EnviroEconomics and Navius Research to assess net-zero electricity pathways for the Atlantic region, with a focus on Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The project employed a mix of modeling and analysis to highlight how electricity demand and supply might evolve under alternative net-zero scenarios in the Atlantic region. Results provide a view of decarbonized electrification in Atlantic Canada, including interconnected transmission systems and electricity trade, and discuss integrated planning opportunities for the region.
Highlights:
- Two models were used to assess end-use energy demand in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick as Canada transitions to net-zero emissions and then predict end-use electricity demand in each province to run a regionally integrated dispatch model.
- Results suggest that the combination of growing economies, the coal-phase out, and increased electrification under net-zero climate policy will lead to a significant increase in new generation requirements in these regions.
- While generation from new renewable sources is important for meeting future generation requirements, results suggests that Atlantic Loop scenarios that supply low emitting hydro power from Newfoundland or Quebec are important for meeting electricity demand in a net-zero emission future.
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This report and modelling work was made possible by the generous financial support of the Ivey
Foundation, and individual donors of the Ecology Action Centre’s Energy Team.
To learn more about this research, please contact Noel Melton.
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