The Canadian Institute for Climate Choices engaged Navius Research to quantify the impacts of climate change on Canada’s electricity system as a result of changes in demand for space heating and cooling. This analysis projects changes in electricity demand, frequency and intensity of peak demand, and electricity expenditure under different levels of climate change. This report is part of a larger study looking at the costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure.
This study projects heating and cooling demand, peak load, and electricity expenditure by region across Canada under fourteen potential climate change scenarios.
Results indicate that overall electricity demand for space heating and cooling is expected to increase by 0.4 – 4.2% across Canada by 2100 as a result of climate change.
Peak electricity demand is expected to increase in the summer due to increased demand for cooling and decrease in the winter due to reduced demand for heating.
Total expenditure on the electricity system is expected to decrease in the medium term (2050) under climate change due to reductions in demand for heating and increase in the long term (2100) due to increases in demand for cooling.