Research
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Michael Wolinetz
Jotham Peters
Dave Sawyer
Seton Stiebert
November, 2017
Summary
Navius Research was hired by Clean Energy Canada (CEC) to conduct a quantitative analysis of the Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) to support CEC’s ongoing participation in the policy consultation process. The CFS is a low-carbon fuel standard that will be applied nationally with the objective of reducing Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 Mt CO2e per year in 2030. This analysis uses two of Navius Research’s in-house models, CIMS and OILTRANS, to forecast the impact of the CFS on Canada’s energy consumption and GHG emissions in 2030. EnviroEconomics used these modeling results to further explore how the CFS may affect jobs and GDP.
Highlights:
- Increased biofuel consumption is the main driver of transportation GHG abatement under the CFS. Renewable electricity and carbon capture and storage are the main drivers of abatement in stationary energy consumption.
- The price of transportation compliance credits under the CFS will be 150-180 $/tonne and the price of stationary credits will be around 40 $/tonne (2015 CAD). Because the CFS is a GHG intensity-based policy, the full value of the CFS carbon price will not be reflected in energy prices.
- The impact of the CFS on fossil fuel prices will be an order of magnitude smaller than the potential impact of the price of crude oil and natural gas.
- The CFS will likely double the quantity of biofuels consumed in Canada in 2030, which will be supplied by increased imports (56% of the supply) and increased domestic production (44%).
- The CFS creates a net-increase of 11,000 direct and indirect jobs and a net-increase of $2.7 billion in GDP in 2030 (2015 CAD).
Click above to download the report.
Download the report here.
This study was commissioned and funded by Clean Energy Canada.
To learn more about this research, please contact Brianne Riehl.
Other Research
2023
Potential of hydrogen to help decarbonize the Yukon
Modeling emissions reductions pathways in the Northwest Territories
Analyzing Net Zero Pathways for Canada
The value of interprovincial transmission for a net-zero future
Modeling Energy Transition Scenarios for Canada
What does achieving net zero mean for clean energy jobs in Canada?
What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix?
2022
Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Animal-sourced food consumption and Canada’s emissions targets
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Potential of small modular reactors in hard-to-decarbonize industries
Hitting Canada’s climate targets with biogas & RNG
Under Water: The costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure
2021
Informing a strategy for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia
The role of carbon capture and storage in Canada’s net zero future
Canada’s clean energy economy to 2030
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations explanation and insights
Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target
Assessing the impacts of the Conservative Plan to Combat Climate Change
2020
2019
Meeting Canada’s climate mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement
Quantifying Canada’s clean energy economy
California and Québec’s ZEV mandates description
Reversing carbon leakage in the Canadian aluminum sector
Supporting the development of CleanBC
Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors
Older
Review of British Columbia’s RLCFRR energy effectiveness ratios
Refining margins and fuel policy in British Columbia
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Electrification best practices in Canada
A review of ECCC’s method for estimating upstream GHGs
Refining margins in British Columbia
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the Energy East pipeline project
The Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation
How do industrial GHG reduction efforts affect demand for skilled labour?
Is British Columbia’s carbon tax good for household income?
How resilient are the Canadian oil sands to carbon constraints?