The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) retained Navius Research to estimate the impact of the Energy East pipeline on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including all sources of emissions from extraction to final consumption. The Energy East project would connect oil producing regions in Western Canada with refineries and export terminals in Eastern Canada by adding pipeline capacity of 1,100 thousand barrels per day. This analysis uses a comprehensive modelling framework to quantify the impact of Energy East on global GHG emissions. It aims to inform the discussion regarding how pipeline projects from Alberta are likely to affect Canadian and global GHG emissions.
The Energy East project is expected to increase global emissions by between 5.3 and 17 Mt CO2e per year from “well-to-wheels”, with the majority of emissions occurring outside of Canada.
Emissions are expected to increase in Canada for two primary reasons: an increase in oil extraction in Western Canada (between 30 and 100 thousand barrels per day) and greater bitumen refining in Eastern Canada.
The Energy East project would have a negligible impact on Ontario’s GHG emissions.