How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model2018-11-06T19:16:32+00:00

Publications

Peer-reviewed article in Technological Forecasting and Social Change

How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model

Michael Wolinetz & Jonn Axsen

April, 2017

Highlights

  • Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales are modelled in terms of demand, supply and policy
  • The no-policy simulation for annual PEV sales is 7% new market share by 2030
  • Results are most sensitive to home charging, consumer learning and supply parameters
  • 2030 simulations range from 17 to 28% with strong demand-focused PEV policies in place
  • Strong supply-focused policy is also required to achieve 2030 market shares over 30%

Abstract: Forecasts for alternative-fuel passenger vehicles sales have varied widely over the past three decades, often proving overly optimistic. In the case of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), published forecasts of new market share in North America have ranged from 1% to 28% in 2020, and from 1% to 70% by 2030. To improve understanding of such forecasts, we develop the REspondent-based Preference and Constraint (REPAC) model to simulate PEV new market share by representing key components of PEV demand, PEV supply and relevant policy. Specifically, REPAC uses a latent class discrete choice model previously estimated from data collected via a 2013 survey of 531 new vehicle-buying households in British Columbia, Canada. REPAC treats these choice model results as a measure of unconstrained demand for PEVs, and then adds consumer constraints (PEV awareness and home charging access) as well as supply constraints that represent the limited variety and availability of PEV models. REPAC’s baseline (“no-policy”) scenario for annual PEV sales is 1.4% in 2020 and 7% in 2030. With strong demand-focused PEV policies in place (purchase subsidies and charger rollout), 2030 market share ranges from 17% to 28%, while strong supply-focused policy is also required to achieve 2030 market shares over 30% (e.g. a policy that incentivizes or requires automaker to increase the availability and variety of PEV makes and models). REPAC’s forecasts are most sensitive to assumptions about PEV home charging access, PEV model availability and variety, consumer familiarity with PEVs, and incremental purchase price.

This figure from the study shows how plug-in electric vehicle market share is expected to vary with different types of policies.

Full Citation: Wolinetz, M. & J. Axsen. 2017. How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 117:238-250.

To learn more about this research, please contact Michael Wolinetz.

Other Publications

Journal Articles

Melton, N., J. Axsen & S. Goldberg. 2017. Evaluating plug-in electric vehicle policies in the context of long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals: Comparing 10 Canadian provinces using the PEV policy report card. Energy Policy, 107, 381-393.

Bataille, C. & N. Melton. 2017. Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012Energy Economics, 64, 118-130.

Wolinetz & Axsen. 2017. How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 117: 238-250.

Melton, N., J. Axsen & D. Sperling. 2016. Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportationNature Energy, 1, 16013. Learn More ➥

Bataille, C., N. Melton & M. Jaccard. 2015. Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region. Climate Policy, 15(5): 565-582.

Jaccard, M., N. Melton & J. Nyboer. 2011. Institutions and Processes for Scaling Up Renewables: Run-of-River Hydropower in British Columbia. Energy Policy, 39(7): 4042-4050.

Peters, J., C. Bataille, N. Rivers, & M. Jaccard. 2010. Taxing Emissions, Not Income: How to Moderate the Regional Impact of Federal Environment Policy. C.D. Howe Institute, 314: Toronto, ON.