Research
Highlights
- Findings about the resilience of oil sands production to carbon constraints are highly sensitive to modeling assumptions.
- Activity in the oil sands sector is sensitive to the design of climate policy.
- Canada’s oil sands are likely to be more resilient to carbon constraints than estimated by MIT.
Navius Research is pleased to release How Resilient are the Canadian Oil Sands to Carbon Constraints? In this brief, Jotham Peters critically evaluates a July 2012 study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which suggested that achieving Canada’s targets for greenhouse gas emissions would significantly reduce the rate of growth of Canada’s oil sands. By replicating MIT’s analysis using our GEEM model, which is tailored to the Canadian economy and energy system, Navius shows that:
1) Oil sands activity is likely to be more resilient to climate constraints than estimated by MIT, and
2) The impact on oil sands activity is highly dependent on the design of climate policy.
This figure compares the impact of climate policy on Canadian oil sands sector output as estimated by Navius with that estimated by MIT.
To learn more about this research, please contact Jotham Peters.
Other Research
2023
2022
Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Animal-sourced food consumption and Canada’s emissions targets
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Potential of small modular reactors in hard-to-decarbonize industries
Hitting Canada’s climate targets with biogas & RNG
Under Water: The costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure
2021
Informing a strategy for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia
The role of carbon capture and storage in Canada’s net zero future
Canada’s clean energy economy to 2030
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations explanation and insights
Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target
Assessing the impacts of the Conservative Plan to Combat Climate Change
2020
2019
Meeting Canada’s climate mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement
Quantifying Canada’s clean energy economy
California and Québec’s ZEV mandates description
Reversing carbon leakage in the Canadian aluminum sector
Supporting the development of CleanBC
Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors
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Review of British Columbia’s RLCFRR energy effectiveness ratios
Refining margins and fuel policy in British Columbia
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Electrification best practices in Canada
A review of ECCC’s method for estimating upstream GHGs
Refining margins in British Columbia
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the Energy East pipeline project
The Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation
How do industrial GHG reduction efforts affect demand for skilled labour?
Is British Columbia’s carbon tax good for household income?
How resilient are the Canadian oil sands to carbon constraints?