Research Brief

Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors

January, 2019

The Government of Saskatchewan is challenging the federal government in court over its plan to implement a tax on greenhouse gas emissions. Saskatchewan opposes the federal plan in part because it claims the economic costs of the carbon tax would be catastrophic.

We took a close look at Saskatchewan’s analysis, and the numbers simply don’t add up. Our best guess is that Saskatchewan’s own modelling suggests that the impacts of a carbon tax have been overstated by multiple orders of magnitude!

Their news release highlights that a carbon tax would reduce GDP growth by up to 2.43%. But their own supporting analysis appears to suggest a reduction of only 0.13% between 2017 and 2022.

Read the full brief here.

Other Publications

Journal Articles

Melton, N., J. Axsen & S. Goldberg. 2017. Evaluating plug-in electric vehicle policies in the context of long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals: Comparing 10 Canadian provinces using the PEV policy report card. Energy Policy, 107, 381-393.

Bataille, C. & N. Melton. 2017. Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012Energy Economics, 64, 118-130.

Wolinetz & Axsen. 2017. How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 117: 238-250.

Melton, N., J. Axsen & D. Sperling. 2016. Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportationNature Energy, 1, 16013. Learn More ➥

Bataille, C., N. Melton & M. Jaccard. 2015. Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region. Climate Policy, 15(5): 565-582.

Jaccard, M., N. Melton & J. Nyboer. 2011. Institutions and Processes for Scaling Up Renewables: Run-of-River Hydropower in British Columbia. Energy Policy, 39(7): 4042-4050.

Peters, J., C. Bataille, N. Rivers, & M. Jaccard. 2010. Taxing Emissions, Not Income: How to Moderate the Regional Impact of Federal Environment Policy. C.D. Howe Institute, 314: Toronto, ON.