The Canadian Labour Congress commissioned Navius to assess how the transition to net zero emissions will impact employment and interprovincial labour force growth in Canada, and the role of proposed labour policy interventions in supporting communities and occupations most at-risk. Navius built a customized version of gTech to undertake this analysis, which includes disaggregation of the labour supply into occupations, interprovincial mobility, and inter-occupational retraining. Using this model, Navius simulated the impacts of four “buckets” of labour market supports, including training and skills, employment insurance and income support, pension bridging and economic development.
Canada’s clean economy supports two million jobs in Canada under a net zero by 2050 scenario. Alberta gains more or a similar number of clean economy jobs than are lost in conventional sectors as innovative new technologies, like direct air capture, are deployed.
Proposed retraining subsidies, employment insurance for retraining, and retirement bridging policies improve outcomes for the workers identified as most at-risk of negative outcomes under net-zero, with higher wages and lower unemployment rates in response to these proposed policies.
Implementation of the suite of modeled labour policies results in higher GDP in Canada in the long run by reducing labour market frictions and resulting in a more productive labour force by 2050.
Labour force growth in oil-producing regions was found to be more sensitive to international prices for oil than domestic policy measures to reduce Canada’s emissions.
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This analysis was commissioned and funded by the Canadian Labour Congress.