Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target

April, 2021


Navius Research and EnviroEconomics undertook energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) modeling, commissioned by seven environmental organizations from across Canada, to determine how Canada can achieve its fair share of emission reductions by 2030. The modeling compares two scenarios: a “Stay-the-Course” scenario, which includes current climate policies plus the proposed increasing carbon price to $170/tonne by 2030, and a “Fair-Share” scenario, which shows how Canada can achieve its fair share of global emission reductions, or a 60% reduction in domestic emissions by 2030.


  • A policy package of flexible regulations and carbon pricing can deliver Canada’s Fair-Share target of 284 Mt of GHG emissions by 2030.
  • Average annual GHG reductions after 2020 are 8.4% in the Fair-Share scenario, more than double annual reductions in the Stay-the-Course scenario.
  • Canada’s economy continues to grow under the Fair-Share scenario. GDP grows 1.8% per year in this scenario versus 2.2% in the Stay-the-Course scenario.

Click above to visit the Environmental Defence report webpage.

Visit the Environmental Defence report webpage.

This study was commissioned and funded by the Climate Action Network, Conservation Council of New Brunswick, Ecology Action Centre, Environmental Defence, Équiterre, Stand.Earth and West Coast Environmental Law.

To learn more about this research, please contact Noel Melton.

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