Trans Mountain commissioned Navius Research to review Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) proposed method for estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions upstream from oil and gas projects. This method will be applied to projects undergoing a federal environmental assessment, including Kinder Morgan’s proposed Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP). This report evaluates ECCC’s proposed method using three criteria: Will it provide an accurate estimate for the GHG impacts of an infrastructure project? Will it encourage and complement policies to reduce GHG emissions? Does it adequately account for uncertainty? It also provides commentary on how the method could be improved.
Navius is in general approval of the method proposed by ECCC to estimate GHG emissions upstream from oil and gas projects.
Several recommendations are made to refine the method. One recommendation is to provide a quantitative assessment of global impacts in addition to quantifying the GHG impacts within Canada.
Incremental GHG emissions from Canadian extraction would be 0.1 to 0.4 Mt C02e per year, but this would likely be offset by extraction reductions globally. On a “well-to-tank” basis, the approval of TMEP would not result in incremental GHG emissions when considered globally.