Electricity Modeling
Navius’ Integrated Electricity Supply and Demand (IESD) model simulates capacity investment and hourly dispatch decisions in the electricity sector as well as the decisions by end-users that affect electricity demand. This tool allows us to provide insight into the impact of policies and economic conditions on:
- Electricity consumption by sector
- Capacity and electricity generation by unit and fuel type
- Greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector
- Greenhouse gas abatement due to electricity conservation and/or electrification in the rest of the economy
- Wholesale electricity prices
Integrating electricity supply and demand
IESD is an ideal tool for exploring different electricity sector pathways because it accounts for:
- Hourly electricity consumption. The supply of electricity must be perfectly timed to match demand in every hour of the day and in every day of the year. This poses a challenge because neither electricity consumption nor electricity production is consistent over time. Canada must be able to supply enough electricity to balance demand at all times, through an ever-changing combination of domestic generation and imports.
- Hourly generation profiles. Different sources of power are available to meet demand in any given hour. Some generation units can be made available upon demand, such as combined cycle gas turbines, but others cannot. For example, generation from wind resources is only possible when the wind is blowing. Likewise, generation from solar photovoltaics is only possible when the sun is shining.
- Identifying the potential and limits of emerging technologies. IESD can anticipate the potential for variable renewable electricity sources and determine opportunities to integrate them into the grid (e.g., through storage or utility-controlled charging) because IESD represents the short and long-term dynamics important to the electricity system. Additionally, IESD can simulate the potential for hydrogen production through electrolysis via curtailed renewable energy and other sources.
IESD is fully integrated with Navius’ gTech model. In the integrated model, gTech completes a simulation for a given year, then passes key information to IESD. IESD then completes its simulation for the same year and passes key information back to gTech. This process is referred to as an iteration. The linked models continue to iterate until convergence is achieved and then advance to the next simulation year.
Integrating electricity supply and demand: an example
A growing population or economy can increase demand for electricity (represented by the gTech model). In response, electricity supply is increased (represented by IESD). However, this increase may affect the price of electricity, which in turn may influence demand (e.g. higher prices will incentivize greater energy efficiency).
By integrating electricity supply and demand, we can also analyze the impact of smart-grid technologies. For example, how might coordinating electricity demand with renewable electricity generation facilitate greenhouse gas reductions?
