Electricity Modeling

Navius’ Integrated Electricity System Dispatch (IESD) model simulates capacity investment and hourly dispatch decisions in the electricity sector as well as the decisions by end-users that affect electricity demand. This tool allows us to provide insight into the impact of policies and economic conditions on:

  • Electricity consumption by sector
  • Capacity and electricity generation by unit and fuel type
  • Greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector
  • Greenhouse gas abatement due to electricity conservation and/or electrification in the rest of the economy
  • Wholesale electricity prices

Integrating electricity supply and demand

IESD is effectively two separate models – one that simulates capacity and hourly dispatch decisions in the electricity sector and another that simulates investment in electricity consuming technologies. For each simulated year, the supply and demand models run iteratively until they converge. This process is repeated over multiple years to show the long-term impact of capacity additions (supply model) and technology choices (demand model). For an even more comprehensive analysis, IESD can be linked with gTech.

Electricity Modeling

Integrating electricity supply and demand: an example

A growing population or economy can increase demand for electricity (represented by the demand model). In response, electricity supply is increased (represented by the supply model). However, this increase may affect the price of electricity, which in turn may influence demand (e.g. higher prices will incentivize greater energy efficiency).
By integrating electricity supply and demand, we can also analyze the impact of smart-grid technologies. For example, how might coordinating electricity demand with renewable electricity generation facilitate greenhouse gas reductions?

Related Projects

Client: BC Climate Action Secretariat
Completion Date: 2016
In 2015, British Columbia began work on a new Climate Leadership Plan to help the province achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets. We were contracted to provide an independent assessment of BC’s existing policies (including the provincial carbon tax), as well as assess how new policies would affect greenhouse gas emissions and the development of the provincial economy. As part of this project, we worked closely with the Climate Leadership Team, a group of experts tasked with providing advice and recommendations on how to update BC’s Climate Action Plan. To conduct this analysis, we employed our CIMS, GEEM and IESD models.

Client: Power Workers’ Union
Completion Date: 2013
As part of the development of Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan, the province engaged in a consultation process. We were contracted by the Ontario Power Workers’ Union to inform their submission to this process. Using the Integrated Electricity Supply and Demand (IESD) model, we quantified the greenhouse gas and electricity price impacts of various scenarios for future electricity supply in Ontario. Our final report [link to pdf] examined the impact of different roles for electricity conservation and demand management, nuclear, gas and renewable electricity generation in Ontario’s supply mix.

Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
e use the General Equilibrium Energy Model (GEEM) to simulate how all sectors of the economy may evolve under different economic conditions.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.