Policy Credit Market Forecasts

We use our in-house model, gTech, to produce market outlooks for existing and emerging policy credit markets in Canada, including the federal Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR), provincial Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) and output-based pricing systems (OBPS). Our market outlooks include how credit markets are likely to evolve over the next decade, including forecasted credit prices, compliance pathways, and key dynamics at play in the market of interest.

gTech is ideally suited to simulate the future of policy credit markets in Canada as it:

  • combines a full economic equilibrium model, including transactions between more than 120 sectors of the economy and credit trading in multiple compliance credit markets,
  • incorporates significant technology and fuel detail, and
  • explicitly represents all federal and provincial policies, including the interactive effects between these policies.

Clean Fuel Regulations Market Outlook

We offer subscription to a quarterly CFR market outlook, forecasting how the CFR credit market is likely to evolve from now to 2031, accounting for the latest available data and policy developments.

The CFR credit market could provide large incentives for investments in transportation decarbonization actions, such as biofuel blending, vehicle electrification and adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in upstream diesel and gasoline production.

The CFR credit price, however, is highly uncertain and could range from $350/credit (in t CO2e) to prices close to zero. The widespread in potential prices stems from a wide range of legislated compliance pathways, as well as interactions with other federal and provincial policies, such as zero emission vehicle and biofuel blending mandates. This uncertainty poses a challenge for investment decisions.

Navius quarterly CFR market outlook provides a credible range of expected CFR credit prices, credit generation and demand by province, and highlights insights into key dynamics that influence credit prices, allowing CFR market participants to make informed investment decisions.

Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
e use the General Equilibrium Energy Model (GEEM) to simulate how all sectors of the economy may evolve under different economic conditions.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.