Policy Credit Market Forecasts
We use our in-house model, gTech, to produce market outlooks for existing and emerging policy credit markets in Canada, including the federal Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR), provincial Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) and output-based pricing systems (OBPS). Our market outlooks include how credit markets are likely to evolve over the next decade, including forecasted credit prices, compliance pathways, and key dynamics at play in the market of interest.
gTech is ideally suited to simulate the future of policy credit markets in Canada as it:
- Combines a full economic equilibrium model, including transactions between more than 120 sectors of the economy and credit trading in multiple compliance credit markets
- Incorporates significant technology and fuel detail
- Explicitly represents all federal and provincial policies, including the interactive effects between these policies
Low Carbon Fuels Market Outlook
We offer a subscription to a quarterly low carbon fuels market outlook, with a focus on Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) and BC’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Prices for future CFR and BC LCFS compliance credits are highly uncertain. This uncertainty is driven by the presence of multiple compliance pathways and overlapping policies across jurisdictions. For market participants, this poses a significant challenge when trying to anticipate how the credit markets will evolve.
Utilizing our comprehensive modeling tools, Naivius is uniquely able to capture these uncertainties to deliver forecasts for future CFR and LCFS prices and complaince, as well as fuel prices and fuel demand. This can be leveraged by market participants to better understand and anticipate the future low carbon fuels market in Canada. The subscription provides forecasts for how the markets are expected to evolve from now to 2031, accounting for the latest available data and policy developments.
