Technology Simulation Modeling

Our in-house model gTech simulates how policy and economic conditions influence technology adoption, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This tool allows us to:

  • Produce forecasts of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for every Canadian province
  • Evaluate the impact of policies on technology adoption, energy use and emissions
  • Assess uncertainty of model forecasts through sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses

Representing technological detail

The model incorporates existing and emerging technologies across all sectors of the economy (e.g., furnaces for home heating, alternative fuel vehicles for transportation and wind turbines for electricity generation). The model then simulates how these technologies are acquired, used to provide energy services (e.g. home heating or transportation) and ultimately retired.

Technology Modeling

Characterizing firm and consumer decision making

gTech seeks to be “descriptive”, meaning that it represents how firms and consumers make investment decisions in the real world. Unlike models that are prescriptive (e.g. solving to minimize financial costs), gTech accounts for a wider variety of factors that influence decisions regarding technology acquisition and use. These factors include a preference for familiar technologies, a sensitivity to the quality of the end-use service provided, an aversion to large up-front costs and a lack of complete information.

Balancing energy supply and demand

As a general equilibrium model, gTech balances supply and demand for all energy and non-energy commodities. This feature ensures that we capture the full impact of policies across all sectors of the economy. For example, a policy requiring the adoption of renewable electricity generation is likely to increase the price for electricity, which will in turn influence firm and consumer choices related to technologies that consume electricity. In addition, changes to household spending on electricity will influence household spending on other goods and services.

Related Projects

Client: BC Climate Action Secretariat
Completion Date: 2016
In 2015, British Columbia began work on a new Climate Leadership Plan to help the province achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets. We were contracted to provide an independent assessment of BC’s existing policies (including the provincial carbon tax), as well as assess how new policies would affect greenhouse gas emissions and the development of the provincial economy. As part of this project, we worked closely with the Climate Leadership Team, a group of experts tasked with providing advice and recommendations on how to update BC’s Climate Action Plan. To conduct this analysis, we employed our CIMS, GEEM and IESD models.

Client: Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change
Completion Date: 2016
In 2015, Ontario announced its intention to join the cap and trade system under the Western Climate Initiative to help meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets. Partnering with EnviroEconomics, we helped the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change understand how the provincial economy could evolve in order to meet greenhouse gas targets under its Climate Change Action Plan. In particular, we explored how alternate design options for cap and trade may impact provincial economic and emissions outcomes.

Client: Clean Energy Canada
Completion Date: 2015
Clean Energy Canada retained us to model the job and economic implications of meeting BC’s 2020 and 2050 climate targets. Our analysis demonstrates that the provincial economy can keep growing while emissions fall by 80% from 2007 levels, if there is early and ongoing commitment to strong carbon abatement policies. To conduct the analysis, we used the CIMS technology simulation model and the GEEM computable general equilibrium model.

Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
e use the General Equilibrium Energy Model (GEEM) to simulate how all sectors of the economy may evolve under different economic conditions.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.
Our goal at Navius is to inform your decisions about energy and the environment.