Research

Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan

February 2026

Summary

In partnership with the Canadian Climate Institute, Navius simulated Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) based on the 2025 ERP Progress Report. In the below assumptions document, we present the assumptions used to characterize federal policies using Navius’ integrated gTech-IESD model. We simulate four policy packages with varying levels of policy design certainty: two ‘implemented’ policy scenarios to demonstrate how the policy environment has changed between the 2023 and 2025 ERP progress reports, and two ‘announced’ policy scenarios.

Click above to download our scenario assumptions.

Click above to download the Canadian Climate Institute’s report.

This analysis was commissioned and funded by the Canadian Climate Institute

Download our assumptions document or the Canadian Climate Institute’s report.

To learn more about this research, please contact Franziska Förg.

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