Research
Weakening Canada’s Industrial Carbon Price Raises Emissions with No Clear Economic Benefit
Franziska Förg
Brianne Riehl
Jotham Peters
Doina Rusu
May 2026
Summary
Navius conducted modeling for the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) to assess the impact of carbon pricing on GDP. The modeling found that weakening Canada’s industrial carbon pricing system has limited economic benefit while simultaneously raising Canada’s emissions.
Click the image to read IISD’s article.
Read IISD’s article here.
To learn more about this research, please contact Jotham Peters.
Other Research
2026
Canada is now more than 20 years behind its 2030 target, with net zero nowhere in sight
Canada-Alberta MOU leaves emissions largely unchanged
Weakening Canada’s Industrial Carbon Price Raises Emissions with No Clear Economic Benefit
Canada–Alberta MOU: Industrial Carbon Pricing Will Make or break Emissions Outcome
Impact of thermal energy storage on provincial power grids
Fraser Institute study on industrial carbon pricing doesn’t add up
Blog: Rockets and Feathers – BC LCFS Credit Valuations
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Blog: Business Cases for Renewables in Edmonton
Blog: Cleaner Fuels, Cloudy Accounting: The NIR Renewable Fuels Data Gap
2025
What Canadian LNG and oil exports could mean for global emissions
Blog: Impact of U.S. tax credits on CFR prices
Evaluating the effectiveness of Canadian industrial carbon pricing systems
Role of thermal energy storage in reducing peak load from building electrification
Quantifying the economic benefits of the NRCan Major Project Inventory
Blog: BC’s low carbon fuels market is susceptible to potential policy changes in Canada
Blog: Beyond the border: Who pays for tariffs?
How Canada can best respond to the U.S. trade war
Independent Assessment of Carbon Pricing Systems in Canada
Blog: Federal policy changes may boost BC LCFS valuations
Blog series: Impact of president-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on the US
2024
Blog: What can Canadians learn from the California LCFS?
Blog: Lower BC LCFS prices are the new normal
Policies to Promote Plant-Based Food Production and Consumption in Canada
Options for Canada’s 2035 Emissions Reduction Target
Reviewing the Economic Impact of the Clean Electricity Regulations on Saskatchewan
Can Canada’s electricity systems handle the electrification of buildings?
Which Canadian climate policies will have the biggest impact by 2030?
2023
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Sustainable Jobs Blueprint Modeling Annex
Ready for Removal: A Decisive Decade for Canadian Leadership in Carbon Dioxide Removal
Bitumen Beyond Combustion in a Net Zero Alberta
Potential of hydrogen to help decarbonize the Yukon
Modeling emissions reductions pathways in the Northwest Territories
Analyzing Net Zero Pathways for Canada
The value of interprovincial transmission for a net-zero future
Modeling Energy Transition Scenarios for Canada
What does achieving net zero mean for clean energy jobs in Canada?
What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix?
2022
Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Animal-sourced food consumption and Canada’s emissions targets
Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Potential of small modular reactors in hard-to-decarbonize industries
Hitting Canada’s climate targets with biogas & RNG
Under Water: The costs of climate change for Canada’s infrastructure
2021
Informing a strategy for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia
The role of carbon capture and storage in Canada’s net zero future
Canada’s clean energy economy to 2030
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations explanation and insights
Towards Canada’s fair share: New modeling and analysis on achieving a stronger climate target
Assessing the impacts of the Conservative Plan to Combat Climate Change
2020
2019
Meeting Canada’s climate mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement
Quantifying Canada’s clean energy economy
California and Québec’s ZEV mandates description
Reversing carbon leakage in the Canadian aluminum sector
Supporting the development of CleanBC
Saskatchewan’s carbon tax numbers are in and the answer is … reporting errors
Older
Review of British Columbia’s RLCFRR energy effectiveness ratios
Refining margins and fuel policy in British Columbia
Analysis of the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard
Electrification best practices in Canada
A review of ECCC’s method for estimating upstream GHGs
Refining margins in British Columbia
Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the Energy East pipeline project
The Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation
How do industrial GHG reduction efforts affect demand for skilled labour?
Is British Columbia’s carbon tax good for household income?
How resilient are the Canadian oil sands to carbon constraints?
